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Fitting COVID-19 Cases in Kenya by MQ Model

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Fitting COVID-19 Cases in Kenya by Makhanu Quadratic (MQ) Model A Quadratic (MQ) model developed by Prof. Makhanu of Masinde of Masinde Muliro University of Science and Technology   seems to accurately fit the Corona Virus cases in Kenya. It is based on  cumulative day of occurrence since Day 1 which was on 13th March 2020. This is an example of a black box model where no regard has been given to causative factors nor characteristics of the system. It has the advantage for simplicity of application under conditions of emergency such as in present times of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model is simply written as follows: COVID-19 Cases = (DAY x DAY)/10  + (DAY x 29)/10 - 2. For example on 22nd April 2020 which is day number 41, put DAY = 41. This gives the predicted number of COVID-19 cases to be 285. The actual number reported by the CS Ministry of Health was 303. Predicted cases are 94.1% of the actual cases. Similarly on 23rd April 2020, DAY = 42 giving a predicted num
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TREND OF COVID-19 CASES IN KENYA

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The trend of COVID-19 Cases in Kenya for the first 37 days is captured.
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Predicting COVID-19 Cases in Kenya by Quadratic and Exponential Models

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Predicting COVID-19 Cases in Kenya Based on Model 1: 5-Day Moving Average and Quadratic Polynomial Model; Model 2: Exponential Model: Outlook for First 50 Days (13th March - 30th April 2020) by Prof. Sibilike K. Makhanu, MMUST Hey guys are you there? The COVID-19 pandemic is with us in Kenya. Do not make any mistake about it. You must strictly observe all instructions issued so far. As we talk right now numbers are increasing by the second. The world has recorded a total of over 2,000,000 cases, on 19th April 2020, a very psychological figure indeed. The rate at which we are moving beyond this figure is scaring. My be we shall hit it before I complete this article. Total deaths recorded so far are over 150,000. These are innocent souls. 150,000 people dying from a cause that is alien to us is the most unfortunate occurrence during our modern time on this earth. Why?   Why?   Why? has God forsaken us. In 1 st Corinthians 1:28-29 we are told that God uses what is not there,
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Unveiling Killer Routes for COVID-19 or Corona Virus in Kenya

Unveiling the Killer Routes for the COVID-19 or Corona Virus Spread in Kenya By Eng. Prof. Sibilike K. Makhanu, Ph.D, MIEK, PE, Masinde Muliro University of Science and Technology, Kenya The COVID-19 or Corona Virus originated from Wuhan City in China and in a span of less than 90 days has spread to different countries all over the world. The extent and characteristics of its spread has differed in different countries as influenced by historical and circumstantial factors. For instance, Italy has been most affected and analysis of the peculiarity of Italy brings to fore many lessons for other countries to chart appropriate intervention measures. In this article we share the lessons we have learnt from Kenya based on the analysis of the first 25 cases of corona virus spread in Kenya. We identify that Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA) has been the main gateway for the Corona virus into Kenyan territory. Thus the first killer route is international airspace. From JKIA t
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