Unveiling Killer Routes for COVID-19 or Corona Virus in Kenya

Unveiling the Killer Routes for the COVID-19 or Corona Virus Spread in Kenya
By
Eng. Prof. Sibilike K. Makhanu, Ph.D, MIEK, PE, Masinde Muliro University of Science and Technology, Kenya

The COVID-19 or Corona Virus originated from Wuhan City in China and in a span of less than 90 days has spread to different countries all over the world. The extent and characteristics of its spread has differed in different countries as influenced by historical and circumstantial factors. For instance, Italy has been most affected and analysis of the peculiarity of Italy brings to fore many lessons for other countries to chart appropriate intervention measures. In this article we share the lessons we have learnt from Kenya based on the analysis of the first 25 cases of corona virus spread in Kenya. We identify that Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA) has been the main gateway for the Corona virus into Kenyan territory. Thus the first killer route is international airspace. From JKIA the other two routes are road travel and domestic air travel. This is followed by gatherings and finally cross border traffic. We analysis below the potential of each route and the necessary intervention measures in order to curtail or limit its spread.

Killer Route 1: International Airspace

All positive cases of COVID-19 virus so far have direct link to travellers who passed through JKIA or those who subsequently came into contact with these travellers. The travellers have been Kenyan returnees from abroad, visitors to Kenya or those on transit but had short stay in Kenya. Intervention Measures: The international airspace has been closed with effect from 23rd March 2020. All those arriving in Kenya are quarantined at a central space or have to self quarantine for at least 14 days in order to allow the minimum of 5 days period that has been identified as the incubation period for the corona virus symptoms to show in a positive patient. Effectiveness: The effectiveness of these measures that include cooperation by those affected will be paramount.

Killer Route 2: Road Transport and Associated Stop-overs

The first positive corona virus case was traced to a Kenyan returnee who after arriving at JKIA used private and public transport means to travel to

Nairobi, Nakuru, Eldoret, Kitale and back to Nairobi. There were stop overs at hotels, restaurants and at public convenience places at each stop over. Along the way the person interacted with friends, crowds, other passengers and customers in hotels, supermarkets and so on. Intervention Measures: Avoid crowded public transport systems limiting the passengers per vehicle, Allow only carry-away food stuffs from restaurants, everybody to intensify the hygiene by frequently washing hands, self quarantine and limited travel or lockout. Effectiveness: Effectiveness of these measures depends on the cooperation by all those concerned and enforcement of the measures outlined under the Public Health Act by law enforcement organs who include the Police.

Killer Route 3: Domestic Air Travel

From JKIA passengers have taken domestic air travel to other airports in Kenya such as Mombasa, Malindi, Kilifi, Kisumu, Eldoret and Garissa. From these domestic airports road transport route repeats itself as above. Indeed at least two of the positive cases of Corona virus have been traced to these routes. The case in point is a Deputy Governor of Kilifi County who travelled from Germany through JKIA to Kilifi and a Priest who travelled from Italy through JKIA and finally to Siaya County where he presided over a number of religious functions. Intervention Measures: Though these measures have not been prominently highlighted, the same standard of measures as those effected at JKIA should be apply to all local airports as well. Effectiveness: The effectiveness of these measures depends on cooperation of all those concerned and enforcement measures by the relevant authorities.

Killer Route 4: Gatherings

Gatherings of all types will become the main route for transmission of the Corona Virus to the population masses. These gatherings include official functions, work places, meetings, conferences, workshops, impromptu gatherings, church gatherings, open air markets, private functions such as family gatherings, funerals and weddings. Intervention Measures: Intervention measures include a ban of these gatherings and its success depends much on the cooperation and sensitization of the masses and full enforcement. Effectiveness: Since these gatherings touch on cultural practices, economic activities and other entrenched practices their elimination or minimization requires much cooperation by the population and full enforcement of the law, even if use of the military is activated. Indeed there has already been resistance from some quarters who have declined to confirm to precautionary orders issued so far. In some instances the police has had to use tear gas in order to disperse some of these gatherings.

Killer Route 5: Cross-Border Traffic

Kenya is sandwiched between five international countries with which she shares her borders. On the East is Somalia, in the North is Ethiopia, South Sudan is on the North-West, Uganda on the West and Tanzania in the South. Through Uganda, Kenya is a transit corridor to the land-locked countries of Burundi, Rwanda, Central Africa nations and the Republic of Congo. The cross border traffic will be a major conduit of corona virus as population masses go about their economic activities. Enforcement of measures and complete control of this traffic will  very much depend on the much needed cooperation between law enforcement authorities across borders as well as cooperation among populations of the neighbouring countries.