Fitting COVID-19 Cases in Kenya by MQ Model
Fitting COVID-19 Cases in Kenya by Makhanu Quadratic (MQ) Model
A Quadratic (MQ) model developed by Prof. Makhanu of Masinde of Masinde Muliro University of Science and Technology seems to accurately fit the Corona Virus cases in Kenya. It is based on cumulative day of occurrence since Day 1 which was on 13th March 2020. This is an example of a black box model where no regard has been given to causative factors nor characteristics of the system. It has the advantage for simplicity of application under conditions of emergency such as in present times of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The model is simply written as follows:
COVID-19 Cases = (DAY x DAY)/10 + (DAY x 29)/10 - 2. For example on 22nd April 2020 which is day number 41, put DAY = 41. This gives the predicted number of COVID-19 cases to be 285. The actual number reported by the CS Ministry of Health was 303. Predicted cases are 94.1% of the actual cases.
Similarly on 23rd April 2020, DAY = 42 giving a predicted number, by MQ Model, of 296 against 320 which is Actual. This gives 92.5% of predicted to Actual.
On 24th April 2020, DAY = 43 gives a predicted number, by MQ Model, of 308 against 336 which is Actual. This gives 91.7% of predicted to Actual.
On 26th April 2020, DAY = 45 gives a predicted number, by MQ Model, of 331 against 355 which is Actual. This gives 93.2% of predicted to Actual.
On 27th April 2020, DAY = 46 gives a predicted number, by MQ Model, of 343 against 363 which is Actual. This gives 94.5%% of predicted to Actual.
On 28th April 2020, DAY = 47 gives a predicted number, by MQ Model, of 355 against 374
which is Actual. This gives 94.9% of predicted to Actual.
On 29th April 2020, DAY = 48 gives a predicted number, by MQ Model, of 368 against 384
which is Actual. This gives 95.8% of predicted to Actual.
On 4th May 2020, DAY = 53 gives a predicted value of 433 to Actual value of 490. This gives 88.4% of predicted to Actual.
On 5th May 2020, DAY = 54 gives a predicted value of 446 to Actual value of 535. This gives 83.4% of predicted to Actual.
On 7th May 2020, DAY = 56 gives a predicted value of 474 to Actual value of 607. This gives 78.1% of predicted to Actual.
On 9th May 2020, DAY = 58 gives a predicted value of 503 to Actual value of 649. This gives 77.5% of predicted to Actual.
On 10th May 2020, DAY = 59 gives a predicted value of 517 to Actual value of 672. This gives 76.9% of predicted to Actual.
On 11th May 2020, DAY = 60 gives a predicted value of 532 to Actual value of 700. This gives 76% of predicted to Actual.
On 12th May 2020, DAY = 61 gives a predicted value of 547 to Actual value of 715. This gives 76.5% of predicted to Actual.
On 13th May 2020, DAY = 62 gives a predicted value of 562 to Actual value of 737. This gives 76.3% of predicted to Actual.
On 14th May 2020, DAY = 63 gives a predicted value of 578 to Actual value of 758. This gives 76.2% of predicted to Actual.
On 15th May 2020, DAY = 64 gives a predicted value of 593 to Actual value of 781. This gives 75.9% of predicted to Actual.
On 16th May 2020, DAY = 65 gives a predicted value of 609 to Actual value of 830. This gives 73.4% of predicted to Actual.
On 17th May 2020, DAY = 66 gives a predicted value of 625 to Actual value of 887. This gives 70.5% of predicted to Actual.
On 18th May 2020, DAY = 67 gives a predicted value of 641 to Actual value of 912. This gives 70.3% of predicted to Actual.
A look at COVID-19 cases in other countries shows completely diversified characteristics. I have hardly seen any two trends that look exactly similar.
For example if the same trend for Kenya continues we can have a total of over 400 cases by end of this month. The model gives 380 cases as at 30th April 2020.
Concern to Kenyans, even with such optimistic scenario, should be how to avoid another 120 new cases in the next 10 days! This is a scaring increase of 42% new cases. This must concern all of us as Kenyans. All effort should be made to avoid such scenario. The Government should maintain the enforcement of measures taken so far. There are indications that we can easily lose this Noble fight against this Pandemic. Let's support the efforts being undetaken by the Ministry of Health. It is our life. Let it not be our deaths!
A Quadratic (MQ) model developed by Prof. Makhanu of Masinde of Masinde Muliro University of Science and Technology seems to accurately fit the Corona Virus cases in Kenya. It is based on cumulative day of occurrence since Day 1 which was on 13th March 2020. This is an example of a black box model where no regard has been given to causative factors nor characteristics of the system. It has the advantage for simplicity of application under conditions of emergency such as in present times of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The model is simply written as follows:
COVID-19 Cases = (DAY x DAY)/10 + (DAY x 29)/10 - 2. For example on 22nd April 2020 which is day number 41, put DAY = 41. This gives the predicted number of COVID-19 cases to be 285. The actual number reported by the CS Ministry of Health was 303. Predicted cases are 94.1% of the actual cases.
Similarly on 23rd April 2020, DAY = 42 giving a predicted number, by MQ Model, of 296 against 320 which is Actual. This gives 92.5% of predicted to Actual.
On 24th April 2020, DAY = 43 gives a predicted number, by MQ Model, of 308 against 336 which is Actual. This gives 91.7% of predicted to Actual.
On 26th April 2020, DAY = 45 gives a predicted number, by MQ Model, of 331 against 355 which is Actual. This gives 93.2% of predicted to Actual.
On 27th April 2020, DAY = 46 gives a predicted number, by MQ Model, of 343 against 363 which is Actual. This gives 94.5%% of predicted to Actual.
On 28th April 2020, DAY = 47 gives a predicted number, by MQ Model, of 355 against 374
which is Actual. This gives 94.9% of predicted to Actual.
On 29th April 2020, DAY = 48 gives a predicted number, by MQ Model, of 368 against 384
which is Actual. This gives 95.8% of predicted to Actual.
On 30th April 2020, DAY = 49 gives a predicted number, by MQ Model, of 380 against 396
which is Actual. This gives 96.0% of predicted to Actual.
On 1st May 2020, DAY = 50 gives a predicted number, by MQ Model, of 393 against 411
which is Actual. This gives 95.6% of predicted to Actual.
On 2nd May 2020, DAY = 51 gives a predicted number, by MQ Model, of 408 against 435
which is Actual. This gives 93.8% of predicted to Actual.
On 3rd May 2020, DAY = 52 gives a predicted to Actual value of 419 to 465. This gives 90.1% of predicted to Actual.
On 5th May 2020, DAY = 54 gives a predicted value of 446 to Actual value of 535. This gives 83.4% of predicted to Actual.
On 6th May 2020, DAY = 55 gives a predicted value of 460 to Actual value of 582. This gives 79.0% of predicted to Actual.
On 8th May 2020, DAY = 57 gives a predicted value of 488 to Actual value of 621. This gives 78.5% of predicted to Actual.
On 10th May 2020, DAY = 59 gives a predicted value of 517 to Actual value of 672. This gives 76.9% of predicted to Actual.
On 11th May 2020, DAY = 60 gives a predicted value of 532 to Actual value of 700. This gives 76% of predicted to Actual.
On 12th May 2020, DAY = 61 gives a predicted value of 547 to Actual value of 715. This gives 76.5% of predicted to Actual.
On 13th May 2020, DAY = 62 gives a predicted value of 562 to Actual value of 737. This gives 76.3% of predicted to Actual.
On 14th May 2020, DAY = 63 gives a predicted value of 578 to Actual value of 758. This gives 76.2% of predicted to Actual.
On 15th May 2020, DAY = 64 gives a predicted value of 593 to Actual value of 781. This gives 75.9% of predicted to Actual.
On 16th May 2020, DAY = 65 gives a predicted value of 609 to Actual value of 830. This gives 73.4% of predicted to Actual.
On 17th May 2020, DAY = 66 gives a predicted value of 625 to Actual value of 887. This gives 70.5% of predicted to Actual.
On 19th May 2020, DAY = 68 gives a predicted value of 658 to Actual value of 963. This gives 65.8% of predicted to Actual.
On 20th May 2020, DAY = 69 gives a predicted value of 674 to Actual value of 1029. This gives 65.5% of predicted to Actual.
On 21st May 2020, DAY = 70 gives a predicted value of 691 to Actual value of 1,109. This gives 62.3% of predicted to Actual.
On 22nd May 2020, DAY = 71 gives a predicted value of 708 to Actual value of 1161. This gives 61.0% of predicted to Actual.
On 23rd May 2020, DAY = 72 gives a predicted value of 725 to Actual value of 1192. This gives 60.8% of predicted to Actual.
On 24th May 2020, DAY = 73 gives a predicted value of 743 o Actual value of 1214. This gives 61.2% of predicted to Actual.
On 25th May 2020, DAY = 74 gives a predicted value of 760 to Actual value of 1286. This gives 59.1% of predicted to Actual.
On 26th May 2020, DAY = 75 gives a predicted value of 778 to Actual value of 1348. This gives 57.7% of predicted to Actual.
On 27th May 2020, DAY = 76 gives a predicted value of 796 to Actual value of 1471. This gives 54.1% of predicted to Actual.
On 28th May 2020, DAY = 77 gives a predicted value of 814 to Actual value of 1618. This gives 50.3% of predicted to Actual.
On 29th May 2020, DAY = 78 gives a predicted value of 832 to Actual value of 1745. This gives 47.7% of predicted to Actual.
On 30th May 2020, DAY = 79 gives a predicted value of 851 to Actual value of 1888. This gives 45.1% of predicted to Actual.
On 31st May 2020, DAY = 80 gives a predicted value of 870 to Actual value of 1962. This gives 44.3% of predicted to Actual.
On 20th May 2020, DAY = 69 gives a predicted value of 674 to Actual value of 1029. This gives 65.5% of predicted to Actual.
On 21st May 2020, DAY = 70 gives a predicted value of 691 to Actual value of 1,109. This gives 62.3% of predicted to Actual.
On 22nd May 2020, DAY = 71 gives a predicted value of 708 to Actual value of 1161. This gives 61.0% of predicted to Actual.
On 23rd May 2020, DAY = 72 gives a predicted value of 725 to Actual value of 1192. This gives 60.8% of predicted to Actual.
On 24th May 2020, DAY = 73 gives a predicted value of 743 o Actual value of 1214. This gives 61.2% of predicted to Actual.
On 25th May 2020, DAY = 74 gives a predicted value of 760 to Actual value of 1286. This gives 59.1% of predicted to Actual.
On 26th May 2020, DAY = 75 gives a predicted value of 778 to Actual value of 1348. This gives 57.7% of predicted to Actual.
On 27th May 2020, DAY = 76 gives a predicted value of 796 to Actual value of 1471. This gives 54.1% of predicted to Actual.
On 28th May 2020, DAY = 77 gives a predicted value of 814 to Actual value of 1618. This gives 50.3% of predicted to Actual.
On 29th May 2020, DAY = 78 gives a predicted value of 832 to Actual value of 1745. This gives 47.7% of predicted to Actual.
On 30th May 2020, DAY = 79 gives a predicted value of 851 to Actual value of 1888. This gives 45.1% of predicted to Actual.
On 31st May 2020, DAY = 80 gives a predicted value of 870 to Actual value of 1962. This gives 44.3% of predicted to Actual.
Validity of Prediction
one may use the model to make predictions into the future, it will only serve as a framework to evaluate the effectiveness of measures being undertaken by the Government of Kenya. The model can thus provide a reasonable monitoring tool.A look at COVID-19 cases in other countries shows completely diversified characteristics. I have hardly seen any two trends that look exactly similar.
For example if the same trend for Kenya continues we can have a total of over 400 cases by end of this month. The model gives 380 cases as at 30th April 2020.
Concern to Kenyans, even with such optimistic scenario, should be how to avoid another 120 new cases in the next 10 days! This is a scaring increase of 42% new cases. This must concern all of us as Kenyans. All effort should be made to avoid such scenario. The Government should maintain the enforcement of measures taken so far. There are indications that we can easily lose this Noble fight against this Pandemic. Let's support the efforts being undetaken by the Ministry of Health. It is our life. Let it not be our deaths!
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