Fitting COVID-19 Cases in Kenya by MQ Model
Fitting COVID-19 Cases in Kenya by Makhanu Quadratic (MQ) Model A Quadratic (MQ) model developed by Prof. Makhanu of Masinde of Masinde Muliro University of Science and Technology seems to accurately fit the Corona Virus cases in Kenya. It is based on cumulative day of occurrence since Day 1 which was on 13th March 2020. This is an example of a black box model where no regard has been given to causative factors nor characteristics of the system. It has the advantage for simplicity of application under conditions of emergency such as in present times of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model is simply written as follows: COVID-19 Cases = (DAY x DAY)/10 + (DAY x 29)/10 - 2. For example on 22nd April 2020 which is day number 41, put DAY = 41. This gives the predicted number of COVID-19 cases to be 285. The actual number reported by the CS Ministry of Health was 303. Predicted cases are 94.1% of the actual cases. Similarly on 23rd April 2020, DAY = 42 giving a predicted num
